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Prediction for CME (2021-12-20T12:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-20T12:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18587/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.8 from AR12908 (S20W00). It is visible in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the west of STEROE A COR. This CME has a dimpled front. The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruption arcades. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-24T12:30Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2021 Dec 20 2257 UTC
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A faint and slow partial halo (angular width above 270 degrees) coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on Dec 20th at 12:24 UT (LASCO-C2), resulting from an M1.8-class flare (peak time 11:36 UTC) produced by active region NOAA 2908 near S20W10. The CME is rather faint, but appears to have an Earth directed component, with a preliminary expected arrival in the afternoon of Dec 24th.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #


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Excerpt from SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2021 Dec 21 1252 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 11221
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Dec 2021, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Dec 2021 until 23 Dec 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Dec 2021  10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Dec 2021  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Dec 2021  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 006

...

A faint and slow partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) lifted off the
solar surface around midday on Dec 20th following the M1.9-class impulsive
flare from NOAA 2908. The estimated projected speed of the CME is 330 km/s
and a glancing blow from it is expected to reach the Earth in the late
afternoon on Dec 24th. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

...

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Lead Time: 71.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-12-21T13:03Z

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