CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-12-20T12:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-20T12:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18587/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.8 from AR12908 (S20W00). It is visible in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the west of STEROE A COR. This CME has a dimpled front. The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruption arcades. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-24T12:30Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2021 Dec 20 2257 UTC
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A faint and slow partial halo (angular width above 270 degrees) coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on Dec 20th at 12:24 UT (LASCO-C2), resulting from an M1.8-class flare (peak time 11:36 UTC) produced by active region NOAA 2908 near S20W10. The CME is rather faint, but appears to have an Earth directed component, with a preliminary expected arrival in the afternoon of Dec 24th.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #


###

Excerpt from SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2021 Dec 21 1252 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 11221
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Dec 2021, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Dec 2021 until 23 Dec 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Dec 2021  10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Dec 2021  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Dec 2021  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 006

...

A faint and slow partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) lifted off the
solar surface around midday on Dec 20th following the M1.9-class impulsive
flare from NOAA 2908. The estimated projected speed of the CME is 330 km/s
and a glancing blow from it is expected to reach the Earth in the late
afternoon on Dec 24th. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

...

###

Lead Time: 71.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-12-21T13:03Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy